Property Transaction Volume Continues to Decline in China and Australia

The Asia Pacific commercial real estate markets continue to absorb the debilitating effects of a double whammy: limited liquidity has sucked capital from the market, and the global recession has produced a contraction in exports and manufacturing, which is adversely affecting property fundamentals. These changing, uncertain conditions have prompted investors to pause and reassess their investment strategies.

Transaction volume across the Asia Pacific region remains muted and is down substantially from previous levels. For the first two months of 2009, the year-to-date transaction volume of US$11.8 billion is 67 percent lower than the comparable figure in 2008. On a 12-month basis, investment activity is down 59 percent; transaction volume totaled US$272.0 billion as of February 2008, while investors placed only US$112.4 billion through February 2009. The year-over-year changes in transaction volume are most pronounced in Australia (–76 percent), China (–60 percent) and India (–56 percent).

While China attracted the most capital, US$2.9 billion, the “hottest” market in February was Japan, which recorded transaction volume of US$2.7 billion, the country’s second highest monthly total during the past 10 months. Investors are primarily targeting office product in Tokyo, which ranks as the least risky city in the region to allocate capital. Year-to-date, investors have closed more than US$2.5 billon of deals in Tokyo, compared to US$1.4 billion in Beijing and US$1.1 billion in Osaka.

Indicative of the increasing economic pressure in the region, Japan reported a record 49 percent decline in exports in February, while China’s exports were down 26 percent from a year earlier. Property market fundamentals, in general, are expected to soften further, and deal flow will remain limited until economies around the world begin to see some positive effects from various government stimulus programs.

Learn more about property investment trends in Asia and Australia with RCA's Global Capital Trends® reports.



2009 YTD 2008
Country Metros $ mil # of Props $ mil # of Props
China Beijing $1,357 16 $15,410 133
Shanghai $314 4 $8,099 84
Hangzhou $339 8 $4,919 59
Tianjin $119 7 $5,712 84
Chengdu $1,342 13
Chongqing $111 5 $1,542 28
Guangzhou $13 1 $1,271 14
Foshan $612 12
Nanjing $137 6 $1,769 22
Xiamen $20 1 $763 18
Wuhan $435 8
China Other $2,701 43 $17,001 386
Hong Kong Hong Kong $430 19 $8,819 204
India India all $266 1 $5,229 92
Japan Tokyo $2,504 50 $26,370 398
Osaka $1,144 11 $4,556 67
Japan Other $355 9 $5,373 119
Malaysia Kuala Lumpur $135 5 $2,716 36
Malaysia other $115 2 $983 19
Singapore Singapore, all $363 1 $9,361 115
South Korea Seoul $195 3 $6,801 81
South Korea other $25 1 $3,053 71
Taiwan Taiwan, all $204 6 $4,655 92
Asia Other Asia other $44 2 $4,463 108
Asia Total $10,892 201 $141,254 2263
Australia Sydney $115 7 $2,424 59
Melbourne $84 4 $1,820 55
Brisbane $171 4 $1,372 43
Perth $30 2 $884 33
Australia other $482 14 $2,104 60
New Zealand New Zealand all $39 3 $544 37
Australia/NZ Total $920 34 $9,148 287
Grand Total $11,812 235 $150,403 2550
*Through February 2009; based on transactions US$10 million and greater
 

Most Active

 NameVol.(bil)#props
1 ProLogis$13.21,586
2 Centro Propert...$9.6610
3 Nationwide Hea...$7.6456
4 HK Lands Dept$6.924
5 LaSalle$5.479
6 Westfield Group$5.227
7 URA$5.032
8 Blackstone$4.583
9 Goldman Sachs$4.453
10 Farallon Capit...$4.334
Based on live data; deals valued at $10 mil. or greater reported in contract or closed in past 12 months
 
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