What Will Recovery in Commercial Real Estate Look Like?
Hotel News Now reports: Recovery will come; that much is clear. But what that recovery will look like is another question altogether—one even Real Capital Analytics' Global Chief Economist, Sam Chandan, declined to answer during his keynote presentation at the Hunter Hotel Investment Conference Wednesday.
“No longer is it ‘Will we have a recovery?’ We’ve moved past that,” said the economist. “… The critical question is what type of recovery will we have?”
That lack of clarity is in part a result of government intervention, according to Chandan. The economic recovery experienced to date depends heavily on federal programs designed to stimulate consumer spending. But what happens when that stimulus ends? “Cash for clunkers,” a program that incentivized consumers to purchase automobiles, saw demand skyrocket for a few months—but demand for new automobiles fell off when the program ended. “What kind of momentum can we sustain when the government pulls support?” Chandan asked. “The answer to that question remains unclear.”
What is more certain is how the recession in the commercial real estate sector will be viewed in hindsight.
“This downturn for us in our sector is not as much about overbuilding as it has been about the way in which we’ve financed our properties,” Chandan said.
As capital and credit began to flow into CRE during the more bountiful years of 2005, 2006 and 2007, demand from investors increased. But because there was only a limited number of assets at that time, prices skyrocketed.
The long-hold players who wanted to acquire and operate the asset for a number of years couldn’t justify paying such high prices in the short-run given projected performance fundamentals, Chandan explained, but that wasn’t an issue for opportunistic investors looking to realize a significant gain on a quick sale.
Unfortunately for many of those investors, prices could only go so high, and many of them were stuck having paid too much money for an asset that wasn’t worth the terms of their loans.
View the full article on Hotel News Now: What Will Recovery in Commercial Real Estate Look Like?
Articles related to this topic:
Atlantic City casinos need overhaul to survive
Leona Helmsley Estate Signs Deal to Sell Manhattan Hotel
Atlanta Retail Interests Out-of-State Investors
With Healthcare Now Law, Financial Reform Tops the Agenda
PE Firm Starwood Raises $2.8 Bil. for Distressed Real Estate
New York City Loses Top Ranking
Dan Fasulo Discusses CRE Recovery at MIPIM 2010
Posted by: Nina Turner