By Beatrice Ginieis on July 1st, 2020
As we reach the midpoint of 2020, the picture of commercial real estate transactions completed globally continues to worsen, Real Capital Analytics data indicates. Activity in the Americas is falling back more severely than seen earlier in the year.
Cumulative volume in the Americas at day 170 is now down 30% from a year ago. In the first quarter of 2020 activity surpassed that of last year; the slump has taken hold in the second quarter, as reported in the latest edition of US Capital Trends.
In Europe, Middle East, Africa (EMEA) volume for the first 170 days has fallen by a more moderate 13% year-over-year thanks to a string of large deals. Like the Americas, EMEA activity in the first quarter kept pace with prior years but soured into the second quarter.
In Asia Pacific, deal activity was slower from the start of the year. At day 170 deal volume has shrunk by 40% year-over-year, about the same rate as seen at the end of the first quarter.
In terms of the number of income-producing property transactions, the tally is between 30% and 40% lower in all three global theaters, approximately the same declines as recorded at day 150. RCA has observed an increased rate of transactions collapsing globally.
The deteriorating picture of activity echoes economic forecasts which have become more pessimistic. The International Monetary Fund in its June outlook pointed to a larger contraction in global output for 2020 than it forecast in April.
The deal volume analysis uses a deal price floor of $10 million for comparability between global zones. The price threshold used for RCA’s US Capital Trends and Europe Capital Trends reports is lower.
Real Capital Analytics clients can access full analysis of Q2 2020 U.S. data on July 22 with the new edition of US Capital Trends. Europe Capital Trends will be released July 29 and Asia Pacific Capital Trends on August 5. If you would like to learn more about how to receive Real Capital Analytics data and reports, please contact us.
Also on RCA Insights: