RCA Insights

US Deal Activity Takes a Summer Break

By on August 17th, 2017

Deal volume normally takes a break for the summer. As investors depart for vacations in the Hamptons or Mykonos, activity will typically tend to fall to low levels in July. Still, preliminary figures for last month suggest that volume was weaker even than July last year.

1708 USCT preview summer main (2)

Looking at July deal volume across the sectors, some investors clearly have had more free time than others this summer. Investors in the retail sector are likely to have a good tan and some stories from the beach:  preliminary deal volume fell off more strongly for this sector than for any others in July.

Investors in the industrial sector were busy. Deal activity grew year-over-year, preliminary figures suggest, and volume for the year-to-date is also up.

Will overall deal volume bounce back after Labor Day? If volume follows traditional monthly patterns, we should see increased levels of monthly activity later in the year.

Yes, activity for the year to date is lower than it was in 2015 and 2016, but volume is still on pace to exceed that seen for 2013 and 2014.

The July in Review edition of US Capital Trends  will be published on August 24.

Jim Costello

Jim Costello

Senior Vice President

Jim Costello has worked in the CRE space on issues of urban economics since 1990, including a 20-year stint at Torto Wheaton Research. Jim expanded the reach of the Torto Wheaton Research team developing forecasts of global market fundamentals. He also developed approaches to pair the forecast results with frameworks to answer investor questions on asset values and relative investment opportunities.

In the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, Jim provided advice to the Treasury Department and helped educate these professionals on commercial real estate performance. Jim is a member of the Commercial Board of Governors of the Mortgage Bankers Administration, where he helps policy makers understand the commercial real estate industry.

Jim is expanding the capabilities of the Real Capital Analytics team on issues of real estate market dynamics. Jim has a master’s degree in economics and is a member of the Counselors of Real Estate.