Will the Fed Spook Commercial Property Prices?

Jim Costello / October 18th, 2017

Everybody and their brother expects that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in December. That’s the known. The unknown is the effect that a rate hike and the unwind of quantitative easing (QE) will...

Positive and Negative Changes in Debt and Equity Capital Flows

Jim Costello / September 21st, 2017

Unrelated but material changes in the composition of both debt and equity capital flows are evident in an analysis of H1’17 data. On a positive note, an increase in CMBS originations evidences that...

US Capital Trends 2016 Year in Review: Activity Dips, Prices Climb

Jim Costello / January 27th, 2017

U.S. commercial property transaction volume fell 11% in 2016, the new edition of US Capital Trends shows. The level of activity is still elevated historically and marks 2016 as the third strongest…

Cautious Optimism Among CMBS Survivors: Takeaways From CREFC

Jim Costello / January 12th, 2017

I attended the CREFC meeting in Miami Beach this week and the watchword was uncertainty. Lenders and investors hate uncertainty, but despite this theme dominating, few people I talked with expressed fears...

Small Banks, Big Impact

Jim Costello / September 17th, 2016

Regional and Local Banks have accelerated their lending for commercial property over the past year, accounting for 21% of all commercial mortgage originations in H1’16. With this share, these smaller banks...

Where Does the Market Go Next? Which Market?

Jim Costello / April 7th, 2016

I have been traveling in Northern California this week as the team back east released the February 2016 figures for the Moody’s/RCA CPPI. In every client visit to talk about the markets and the economy...

US Commercial Real Estate Market Takes a Breather in February

Jim Costello / March 18th, 2016

Preliminary estimates suggest that U.S. commercial real estate volume fell 48% in February from a year earlier, following January’s 3% drop. Combined with the fall in the Moody’s/RCA CPPI...

My Observations on MBA CREF16

Jim Costello / February 10th, 2016

Everybody knows that with the high volume of loans originated in 2006 and 2007, in the next two years the market will need to refinance much more debt than in years past. The unknown is whether there will...

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